We are in an era of challenges and changes in the wave of globalisation. The announcement by United States President-elect Donald Trump of a 10 per cent tariff increase on imports from China and a 25 per cent tariff increase on imports from Mexico and Canada is a move that, like a boulder thrown into the surface of a calm lake, has caused ripples and triggered widespread concern and profound thinking on a global scale.
Trump's protectionist trade policies not only pose harsher penalties on China, but may also bare their fangs on other regions such as Japan and Europe, while deportations of illegal immigrants are also approaching. These policy shifts will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the vibrant flow of people, goods and capital, casting a shadow over the process of globalisation. However, globalisation will not stop there. Despite the emergence of comprehensive crises such as the trade war between the United States and China, the new crown epidemic, the war in Ukraine, and the tensions in the Middle East, globalisation continues to move forward with determination.
Germany logistics large enterprises DHL (DHL) and the United States of America, New York University to trade, capital, information and people flow of huge data based on the calculation of the composite index, since 2001, 2022, the index reached more than 25 per cent of the highest level, 2024, although a slight decline, but is still expected to maintain close to 25 per cent of the high level.
In the process of globalisation, there is an increasing trend towards a change of protagonists and a shift in the centre of gravity. While the share of world merchandise trade between China and the United States has declined, the proportion of trade associated with countries that do not necessarily fall into one of the two camps has risen. The increasingly dynamic trade of countries such as India, Viet Nam, Brazil, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become an important force in keeping globalisation on track, putting the brakes on the decoupling of the world economy.
Chinese scholars have pointed out that the restructuring of supply chains in the United States, Europe and Japan is a way of deepening relations between liberal countries while maintaining ‘diversified’ relations with non-liberal countries. The growing presence of the global South (emerging and developing countries centred in the southern hemisphere) as an exporter and importer was effectively moderating the impact of the United States - China rivalry.
even though, Trump's xenophobic policies could upset the current balance and push the world economy to the brink of even more dangerous decoupling. If he really imposes high tariffs of 60 per cent on China and 10 to 20 per cent on other countries, it will inevitably lead to worryingly serious developments. In the face of such a situation, countries around the world are actively thinking of strategies to deal with it. Major Chinese companies are also discussing options such as shifting their manufacturing base from China, where tariffs are high, to other countries, even to the United States, while endeavouring to expand their supply chains to the global South, which is a huge market of the future.
Globally, exports of goods and services account for only 20 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) accounts for 5 per cent of total investment, and migrants account for 4 per cent of the total population, indicating that the scope for globalization remains enormous. And the people of the global South are actively seeking their own ‘virgin territory’. In a survey of adults in 50 countries and territories conducted by the international research firm Ipsos, an average of 64 per cent of respondents believed that globalisation had been beneficial to their countries and regions, a proportion that was significantly higher in much of Africa, Asia and Latin America than in the United States, where it stood at 49 per cent.
‘Even though many in Washington and Beijing worry about interdependence, most of the world wants it,’ said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, an international conference organised by the US-based research firm. The Global South wants to maximise its national interests while keeping the two powers at arm's length, with strong interest in artificial intelligence (AI) in the US and renewable energy in China.
While efforts to pressure Trump to fix his overly aggressive policies can't be slackened, we also don't think he'll easily change his mind as a result. In this case, China and other countries can only solve the problem. It's time to maintain negotiations to avoid high tariffs while building a strong and efficient supply chain as soon as possible.
China should actively commit itself to expanding and deepening the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in East Asia, and so on, so as to fully share the benefits of free trade zones with the global South and Europe, and to jointly promote the continued development of globalisation. Globalisation is a marathon with no end in sight, and despite the obstacles and challenges along the way, as long as we uphold the spirit of openness, inclusiveness and cooperation, respond positively to changes and look for new opportunities, we will certainly be able to continue to move forward on the road of globalisation and achieve common prosperity and development.
